• Is There Trouble In San Francisco’s Real Estate Market?

    Is San Francisco’s hot real estate market showing signs of trouble? According to a note to its clients, analysts at Morgan Stanley through their leader Vance Edelson said that the tech IPO slowdown has started some concerns that one of the hottest real estate markets might be ready for a pause.Edelson and his team looked at commercial real estate market wherein rents have risen by about 70% since 2009.Demand has consistently been robust as proven by only 6.5% vacancies in the cities’ office space.

    Edelson and his team wrote that robust demand since the Great Recession has been in question because the pickup in subleasing earlier this year including the weaknesses in the AlphaWise survey that was done earlier in the week and tech IPO slowdown is now in the spotlight. Office absorption tracks the IPO market overtime but there are strong mitigating factors that include strong pre-leasing of new space, constraints in future development and vacancy that is still considered to be very close to historic lows.

    Edelson and his team have also charted the number of tech IPO’s against commercial net absorption rates to be able to measure the difference between office spaces that have been just vacated and office space that has just been occupied. Based on the chart, the pace for new tech IPO’s have slowed down most particularly with tech space where over half of the companies that are filing for SEC are said to have disclosed material weakness.

    Disclosing material weakness usually means problems with a company’s financials although it is not a sign that the company is in a bad state. They are just being realistic about their condition although this is not a positive sign for the market. According to the report, sub-leasing increased to 1.4 million square feet of office space or 1.5% of available stock which means that companies occupying large amounts of space are sub-leasing to smaller tenants in order to supplement their leases.

    It is expected though that the market will remain fairly balanced although it is clear that the market is slowing down. The market is facing some problems finding enough tenants to occupy 7% of current available space.

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  • Why Australia’s Hot Real Estate Market Is Cooling Down

    Australia is known as one of the hottest real estate markets in the world because of its unstoppable run of soaring valuations but recently house prices in major cities have begun to slide. Last November, house prices fell by 1.4% in Sydney which is Australia’s biggest and most expensive housing market. According to data from a global research firm Core Logic RP Data, prices in Melbourne also fell by 3.5%.

    The sudden pullback of Australia’s major market exposed some sustainability questions on international urban real estate hot spots all over the world like Vancouver and Toronto. Five of Australia’s eight capital cities are experiencing a slump in housing prices with Hobart, Darwin and Canberra prices on the decline. Adelaide, Brisbane and Perth are showing slight price increases at 7%, 6% and 3% respectively.

    According to the research, the housing market is moving through the peak of the cycle at a time when new large dwellings are being constructed. The housing slump is due to a tighter lending environment, less appetite for risks among investors and affordability constraints particularly in the major housing markets of Melbourne and Sydney where the average price of a home is Australian $810,000 ($790,000).

    Because of the recent increase in house prices, international demand from mainland China was reduced and some real estate agents have reportedly convinced some sellers to drop their asking prices. On the other hand, Vancouver Canada is not experiencing a dip in local prices of homes and it is not lacking in international interest.

    Australia and Canadian markets are both exposed to a huge slide in commodity prices and they have both experienced hot housing markets in recent years. Housing prices have also been boosted by the high demand from Mainland China. People are curious about the housing bubble but at the end of the day, real estate relies on supply and demand.

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  • Millennials And Baby Boomers Driving The Growth Of Philadelphia Real Estate

    According to some key players in the Greater Philadelphia commercial real estate industry, millennials and Baby Boomers are driving current real estate trends and will continue to do so in the future. This was the opinion of the panel of real estate brokers that attended Philadelphia’s Business Journal’s 2nd annual economic forecast.

    When Roger Thomas, president and co-founder of Workspace Property Trust was asked how millennials are affecting the real estate market, he said that the millennial population prefers to live in urban environments although it is not permanent. It is similar to a cycle. When a millennial finds a partner, gets married and starts to have kids, they find more value for their dollar in the suburbs. The American dream is alive in the hearts of the millennial population and they still dream of having their own home.

    Meanwhile, Michael Markman, president of BET Investments that owns and develops apartments and retail projects said that their company is focusing on building environments for different purposes. The projects are usually in locations that are within walkable distance to towns like Media where the company has a project. Millennials and Baby Boomers are attracted to these real estate projects.

    All of the real estate experts agree that Philadelphia has become a dynamic city for long term real estate development projects. However, there are issues affecting the real estate industry like the possibility of higher interest rates, infrastructure, regulations and how businesses will be affected by the incoming Trump administration.

    Trump’s focus on creating new employment opportunities and lowering of business tax rates will create a big impact on the real estate industry whether locally or nationally. It both polices come true it will create a perfect environment for the real estate business not only in Philadelphia but other American states.

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